I called the $WYFI drop while most of FinX was pumping it.

We were first to highlight $WYFI at $29. It rallied to $46 to complete subwave 5, and only after that 60% move did people start paying attention.

I adjusted the count slightly as subwave 3 extended to the 2.618 fib.

The warning signs of a top were there. RSI was showing bearish divergence and we saw a clear rejection off the 1 fib extension with increased volume, which is textbook for wave 5.

I called the top and the correction that followed. Price fell 59% from there.

A note on drawing wave 5 targets. The most reliable way is once you already have waves 3 and 4 completed. Draw the Fibonacci extension from the start of wave 1 to the wave 3 high, then to the wave 4 low. I use the 0.618 to 1 fib extension for a standard wave 5. If it extends, the 1.141 to 1.414 fib is likely.

Now the part that caught most people out

$WYFI printed a bull flag and plenty of people got excited. The warning signs were sitting right there.

1st: the pullback was too shallow. Price had just completed a wave 1, so wave 2 was next. Wave 2 typically pulls back towards the 0.618 or 0.786 fib. This one stopped at the 0.382.

2nd: the volume was wrong. In a bull flag, volume decreases and price pulls back on lower volume. Here selling volume increased, and it stayed consistently higher than buying volume.

3rd: there was no three wave structure. In Elliott Wave price pulls back in three waves, typically an ABC correction. There were no clear three waves present. That is why I was confident that when price did break out, it would find resistance as wave B.

4th: it was too quick. The pullback lasted 15 days after an 87 day impulse up. Likely too fast for the bottom to be in.

Wave B resistance typically sits between the 0.5 and 0.786 fib. I used the 0.618, and price rejected it to the penny.

That was the moment everyone saw the breakout and started chasing. I knew wave C was coming.

Price is now consolidating around the 0.786 fib.

What next for $WYFI

I have a small starter position from buying at the 0.618 fib. I am in no rush to build a meaningful size yet.

Price is trading below all moving averages. There is no RSI divergence yet on the 4 hour or the daily, only some on the hourly, and that is not significant enough for me to add.

I expect one of three scenarios. Here is how I would manage my position around each.

1) Price moves up in a clean five wave move on increased volume. I buy in subwave 2. That would be the start of a move higher into wave 3.

2) Price tests the 0.887 fib at $14.69. I would likely buy there on support confirmation.

3) Price moves past the invalidation at $10.49. Below that price makes a lower low and my count is broken. At that point price is in freefall, with a likely bottom around $8 as it moves into an expanded wave B within a larger corrective structure. Marked in red on the chart.

What you can learn from $WYFI

First, do not fall into the hype trap on FinX. Take a step back and assess what the structure is telling you. Always do that without a bias.

Second, assess the probability of the pullback being complete. Look for three waves down, with wave C having five waves down. Wave 2 typically finishes at the 0.618 to 0.786 fib. Wave 4 finishes between the 0.382 and 0.5 fib. If they supposedly finish outside those ranges, step back and reassess.

Third, use time to your advantage. Two approaches here. After an impulse up, ask whether it is reasonable for the correction to finish that quickly. The second approach is that the market usually gives you another opportunity. If the breakout from the bull flag was real, you would see a clear five waves to the upside. In that case you simply buy subwave 2, where the risk to reward is significantly better.

Fourth, analyse the volume trend. On pullbacks you want to see lower volume. On breakouts you want to see increased volume.

Still here?

Most people don't get this far. That tells me something about you.

So here's something I haven't said on X.

Later this year I'm running one cohort of 1-1 tutoring. A select few people. You learn to read a chart the way I read one.

It's the premium end. Priced accordingly, and there's homework every week.

There's no launch post coming. No thread, no announcement. Just this, to the people who read to the bottom.

If you're interested, reply.

Your turn

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Everything above is my own analysis and my own positioning. It is not financial advice and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Do your own research and manage your own risk.